Why Kerry Will Lose, Part 3
Awhile back I said:
Bush can lose either Pennsylvania or Florida and still win a close reelection. But if he loses both, then he's going to have a hard time making it up elsewhere. If he wins both, I don't see how Kerry can make it up.Over at "Right Side Redux" Justin offered this analysis yesterday:
Bush is ahead in every state that he won in 2000 with the exception of NH. Bush is also ahead in WI (way ahead!) and Iowa. Meanwhile Kerry has to defend: NM, OR, MN, PA. These states are all in the toss up pile...Going to the "Electoral Vote Predictor" map, I note that of the tossups mentioned by Justin - NM, OR, MN, PA - all are currently leaning Kerry by tiny margins except New Mexico.
Even if Kerry wins all of the toss ups, the score would then be 291 to 247. In such a scenario Ohio does nothing for Kerry.247 + 20 = 267 for KerryHe needs to win either Ohio and Iowa
291 - 20 = 271 for Bush247 + 20 + 7 = 274 for Kerryor just Florida
291 - 7 - 20 = 264 for Bush247 + 27 = 274 for Kerryto have a chance. But again, this assumes that he wins ALL of the toss up states.
291 - 27 = 264 for Bush[Arithmetic added to this quote]
But Kerry has to win all the tossups just to have a shot at staying in the game. Who would have thought that Republican-leaning New Mexico - with its 5 electoral votes - could be so important?