Two Neocons Solving the Worlds Problems

Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Why Kerry Will Lose, Part 3

Awhile back I said:

Bush can lose either Pennsylvania or Florida and still win a close reelection. But if he loses both, then he's going to have a hard time making it up elsewhere. If he wins both, I don't see how Kerry can make it up.
Over at "Right Side Redux" Justin offered this analysis yesterday:
Bush is ahead in every state that he won in 2000 with the exception of NH. Bush is also ahead in WI (way ahead!) and Iowa. Meanwhile Kerry has to defend: NM, OR, MN, PA. These states are all in the toss up pile...

Even if Kerry wins all of the toss ups, the score would then be 291 to 247. In such a scenario Ohio does nothing for Kerry.
247 + 20 = 267 for Kerry

291 - 20 = 271 for Bush
He needs to win either Ohio and Iowa
247 + 20 + 7 = 274 for Kerry

291 - 7 - 20 = 264 for Bush
or just Florida
247 + 27 = 274 for Kerry

291 - 27 = 264 for Bush
to have a chance. But again, this assumes that he wins ALL of the toss up states.
[Arithmetic added to this quote]
Going to the "Electoral Vote Predictor" map, I note that of the tossups mentioned by Justin - NM, OR, MN, PA - all are currently leaning Kerry by tiny margins except New Mexico.

But Kerry has to win all the tossups just to have a shot at staying in the game. Who would have thought that Republican-leaning New Mexico - with its 5 electoral votes - could be so important?

 Posted by Hello


Blogger Beyond Words said...

I'm doing my part for Iowa.
--pro-Bush posts at Beyond Words
--BushCheney Sign in Yard
--Volunteering at Story County Campaign Headquarters
--Signed up to be a Poll Checker on Election Day

Maybe I should link to this post today (October 6) because many of my readers, oddly enough, are from Iowa.

October 6, 2004 at 5:40 AM

Blogger Stephen Gordon said...


If Bush can hold on to Florida and your people can help deliver Iowa, it's over as far as I can tell.

I see no realistic possibility for Kerry winning under that scenario.

October 6, 2004 at 6:52 AM


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