Why Kerry's Losing
On August 18th the Pew Research Center released a poll showing that…
a majority of Democrats (51%) believe that "U.S. wrongdoing in dealings with other countries might have motivated the 9/11 attacks." Republicans, on the other hand, "reject that view even more decisively than three years ago (76% now, 65% in late September 2001).This raises a serious question. If a majority of Democrats assign blame to the United States for 9/11, can they be trusted to aggressively wage the War on Terror? Specifically, can the Democratic Party's first (Kerry) and fourth (Edwards) most liberal senators be trusted with the war?
This is not a question of patriotism, but a question of motivation and the setting of priorities.
I don't need to answer this question. A majority of American people - Republicans plus persuadable Independents and Democrats - have already decided that the Democratic Party is not the best party to wage this war. This issue wins for the President and loses for Kerry every time it's brought up.
So Kerry has to fall back on domestic politics and hope for a 527-style attack that sticks to the President. An improving economy, Rathergate, and a disorganized Kerry campaign aren't helping.
Considering all of this it's not really surprising that, according to the electoral vote predictor, Bush is now ahead 311 to 223.
I'm guessing that this will probably even out some by the election. My prediction is that Bush will win with electoral votes in the 290's.