I hope that election night this year won't be as long as in 2000! I was worthless the day after election day. So this year I'm developing a system so that I can "call" the race early:
- If Bush takes Maine or New Hampshire, then Kerry's in trouble. These states only have 4 electoral votes each, but if Kerry can't win solidly in the Northeast, it may be an early indication of how the rest of the evening will go for him.
- Bush can lose either Pennsylvania or Florida and still win a close reelection. But if he loses both, then he's going to have a hard time making it up elsewhere. If he wins both, I don't see how Kerry can make it up.
So I'll watch these states carefully and then go to bed early happy in the knowledge…who am I kidding? I'll be up until
One sign that it might be another long night is this erratic Electoral Vote Predictor. Bush is still ahead 256-239, but he is no longer polling the 270 votes needed to win.
I don't think this is an indication of how well the Kerry campaign is doing or how poorly the President's campaign is doing. Rather, this dramatic 99-vote swing demonstrates how close the race still is. Small changes, like a fading RNC convention bounce, can mean a big difference in the electoral count.
Glenn Reynolds is looking at some different polls.
Over the weekend there was a minor sequel to the Cheney-Edwards conflict when Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert commented:
"I don't have data or intelligence to tell me one thing or another, [but] I would think they [the terrorists] would be more apt to go (for) somebody who would file a lawsuit with the World Court or something rather than respond with troops."When asked in a follow-up question if he believed al-Qaida could operate better with Kerry in the White House he said "yes."
John Edwards immediately shouted "Fear Mongering!"
The same day (are these guys coordinating their messages at all?), Kerry came out saying "Invading Iraq has created a crisis of historic proportions, and if we do not change course, there is the prospect of a war with no end in sight."
In other words...
Reelecting Bush = Everlasting War. And, presumably the end of human civilization and the rise of The Planet of the Apes.
YOU MANIACS. YOU BLEW IT UP. DAMN YOU. DAMN YOU ALL TO HELL!I actually don't think either statement amounts to fear mongering - at least not in any unethical sense. After 9/11 it is entirely proper to debate which party will make the country safer.
I just happen to agree with Cheney and Hastert.